five key indicators have inverted into the bright spots for Republican Glenn Youngkin’s gubernatorial campaign in the final part of the race in Virginia.
Independents, parents concerned about education, Biden 2020 voters, the Republican base, and the Chinese coronavirus are among the positive factors driving Youngkin’s campaign to Tuesday’s election.
These indicators forced Politico admit that Youngkin “could become the first Republican in ten years to win a nationwide race in Virginia.”
1. Independent voters
The first metric is independent voters. Politico recognized independent voters in Virginia are fighting for Youngkin. “In three surveys published this week, Youngkin had a 7-, 22-, and 18-point advantage among independents,” the publication wrote.
Here is a crowd in Alexandria, where Glenn Youngkin is giving his speech about the hive this morning at a farmers market. pic.twitter.com/CiUTW4UCHQ
– Eric Bradner (@ericbradner) October 30, 2021
There is no partisan voter registration in the Commonwealth of Virginia. So independents in Virginia are self-appointed, but they can still lean toward Republicans or Democrats. About one-third of registered voters identify as independent, making voting difficult.
Probably a lot of Republican enthusiasm could help avoid votes among those who identify as independent but usually vote Republican.
2. Parents care about education
Parents are another key indicator of a breakdown for Youngkin, Politico reported. Fox News Poll revealed Youngkin led his Democratic challenger by 14 points with likely voters who are parents.
The parents probably voted well for Youngkin because of a sexual assault scandal in the Loudoun County school system in which there was an attempt at cover-up. Parents were also introduced to critical race theory (CRT), which is taught in schools in Virginia.
Youngkin’s opponent has denied CRT is taught in schools in Virginia. “It’s not taught here in Virginia,” Terry McAuliffe claimed on October 7 about CRT in Virginia. “We can ask about any topic. Here’s what I’ve been saying all along and it really bothers me – the whole idea of encouraging parents to create divisions.
Contrary to McAuliffe’s claims, concerned parents protested at school council meetings that CRT is taught in schools in Virginia. The protests led to Attorney General Merrick Garland authorizing the FBI to investigate the parents, based on a misguided note by the National Association of School Committees (NSBA) calling the parents “domestic terrorists”.
3. Joe Biden 2020 voters
The third metric that fluctuates against Youngkin is Joe Biden 2020 voters.A Washington Post survey revealed McAuliffe wins only 90 percent of Biden 2020 voters. Youngkin, meanwhile, wins 99 percent of Republican voters and six percent of Biden voters.
It should be noted that according to a Fox News poll, President Biden has only a 43% approval rating in the country. “And 14 percent of respondents who said they voted for Biden – a small but not insignificant number – now disapprove of his performance,” Politico to warn.
The inability of the Democratic candidate to win those who voted for Biden in 2020 could turn the country in Youngkin’s favor.
4. Republican base
The fourth metric that favors the Republican is strong support during the GOP base for Youngkin. “Polls show Youngkin wins virtually every Trump voter who says he intends to run next week, but his ability to bring the former president’s base with him while keeping Trump at his fingertips is even more impressive,” Politico wrote.
According to the WaPo According to the poll, Youngkin has almost twice the lead (61 percent vs. 33 percent) in rural Virginia. Youngkin’s numbers in this category are much better than Trump’s in 2020.
5. Chinese coronavirus
Finally, the issue of coronavirus favored McAuliffe’s campaign. Monthly cases of coronavirus have decreased, giving the Democratic candidate less food to encourage voter turnout. Virginia voters also don’t put the coronavirus very high on their list of concerns.
According to a Post-Schar School survey, only ten percent of Virginians to believe coronavirus is a major topic in the country. Education is at the top with 24 percent, and the economy, burdened by inflation, is just below 23 percent.
In addition, “Friday’s survey by Republican firm Echelon Insights actually gives Youngkin a 1-point advantage over who is more trusted to control the Covid-19 pandemic,” Politico recognized.
Follow Wendell Husebø on Twitter @ WendellHusebø