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Hwelcome and welcome Telegraph Sport’s live broadcast of today’s autumn international match between Scotland and South Africa in Murrayfield.
The good thing about South Africa is, says Scotland coach Gregor Townsend, that opponents have no doubts about what awaits them. Men in green and gold will play with unwavering physicality and directness. They will try to take advantage of the settings to dominate the territory and exert maximum pressure to keep the traffic light going. This is not, says Townsend, rocket science.
You don’t even have to do that to beat them, as Wallabije and All Blacks did it twice during the rugby championship. When Australia beat them in consecutive games this summer, they did so because their opposing Quade Cooper, instead of escaping from the depths as South Africa expected, kicked into corners, thus preventing South African dominance in the territory. Parity in the front and both possessions and territories was the foundation of these victories.
Townsend and his fellow coaches didn’t lose a lesson. If South Africa – which kicks more in world rugby than any other country but also has the highest percentage of successful persecutions – strikes, Scotland will react in the same way.
A prerequisite for being able to kick is equality in the front, and Scotland has given itself a chance to fight by setting up a package that is slightly heavier and taller than their Springbok opponents and on average two years younger. While South Africa are no bigger men, the Springbok culture of extreme physicality and confrontation is their main weapon and nowhere is this more true than a monstrously strong bench.
Given the apparent certainty that South Africa will hit long, high and often on Scotland’s last three, the decision to opt for the 5ft 9in young Rufus McLean, who was noticeably hesitant under the high ball on his debut against Tonga, may seem silly , but Townsend is convinced that the wealth that the fast 21-year-old winger brings more than compensates for all the disadvantages. Size, says Townsend, is not everything. “The best winger in the world in the last two years is Cheslin Kolbe and he has to be one of the smallest players in world rugby,” he said. “You’re looking for players who will make the biggest change in their position.”
As Townsend knows, the statistics can be misleading. The Scots lead both countries in most of this year’s numbers, which are important, such as line breaks (6.7 vs. 2.5), defenders defeated (28.1 vs. 14.1), defeat (7.3 vs. 2.9), missed matches (11.3 vs. 18.7), although the Springboks predominate in lost balls (5.6 vs. Scotland 3.6). Most important, however, are statistics that say Scotland has not beaten South Africa for 11 years, a period in which it has beaten Scotland six times in a row.
Whether the Scottish side, which has shown great character in the last two years by breaking long strings of defeats in Wales, England and France, is confident that it will overcome South Africa’s physical dominance and traffic light ownership will be a key measure of their progress.
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