Explained: What is Article 16 and will it be triggered?

The government of Boris Johnson has been warning for months that the conditions for the launch have been met Article 16, which is contained in Northern Ireland Protocol.

Talks on the Protocol, which is part of the Brexit exit agreement, are ongoing, and a decision on whether to launch it is expected at the end of November.

But what are the consequences of such a move? Here is everything you need to know about the disputed clause.

What is Article 16?

As part of Boris Johnson renegotiation of the exit agreement in October 2019, the United Kingdom and the EU have agreed to a protocol on Northern Ireland, which leaves the province in the EU ‘s single market.

This means that goods can flow freely between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. However, there are customs controls on all goods shipped from the UK to Northern Ireland.

Article 16 is a safeguard clause in the protocol that the United Kingdom or the EU can initiate if it considers that Brexit rules in the province have caused “serious economic, social or environmental problems” or “diversion of trade”.

The British government has argued that the threshold for this has already been reached due to the trade chaos caused by the protocol. The Prime Minister believes so The Brexit agreement needs to be renewedbecause it caused much more interference than expected.

There is a protocol lost the support of the unionist community whereas it created a trading border in the Irish Sea, which essentially stuck between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

What happens when Article 16 is triggered?

For trigger Article 16, the United Kingdom must inform the European Commission of its intentions, including how it intends to address the problems which it considers to have been caused by the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Both sides then immediately begin a one-month consultation period to discuss the British proposals.

Downing Street may not introduce its amendments to the Protocol during this time, unless there are “exceptional circumstances” in which the Government considers that immediate action is required.

The EU’s response will depend on how far the United Kingdom intends to go after Article 16 is triggered. If London finds limited and specific revisions to the treaty, the bloc could take basic steps to address these concerns. Maros Sefcovic, Vice-President of the European Commission warned that the “serious consequences” if Britain goes even further with its proposed changes.

How will the EU respond to Article 16?

The launch of Article 16 will lead to an immediate response from Brussels and the European capitals.

The hardliners in the Commission, France and Ireland will accuse the UK of poisoning the well and acting in bad faith by breaking the agreements that were only recently agreed upon.

Initial anger will be met with calls to end the post-Brexit trade pact. The Commission will have to decide whether this is a justified response to the British move.

EU countries will support Dublin, which is expected to be hardest hit by Article 16. Paris, too, would probably take the toughest stance and call for punitive trade sanctions, as President Emmanuel Macron has his protracted dispute with the UK over fishing rights.

Despite calls for the Commission to draw up a concrete list of possible retaliation, Mr Sefcović has so far refused and told Member States that they must first allow the negotiations on the protocol to take place.

Will the United Kingdom initiate Article 16?

The Prime Minister and his chief negotiator Lord Frost stressed that a the outcome of the negotiations is a priority solution for the government. But Article 16 remains on the table as a legitimate tool to address the United Kingdom’s concerns regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol.

It has been argued that the government could launch the mechanism before the new year if there is no real progress in talks on a new Brexit deal for the province.