Pfizer CEO unveils 2030 growth plan as company faces up to $18 billion in revenue cuts from generic drugs

Pfizer Chief Executive Albert Bourla on Tuesday laid out his plan to maintain the pharmaceutical giant’s growth through 2030 as the Covid-19 pandemic subsides and the company faces generic competition for some of its bestsellers.

Bourla said Pfizer expects to lose between $16 billion and $18 billion in revenue from 2025 to 2030 as patent protection for some of its best-selling drugs expires. He acknowledged that some investors are skeptical about Pfizer’s future after two successful years for its Covid vaccine and antiviral treatment.

“We recognize that some are questioning Pfizer’s long-term growth prospects,” Bourla told analysts on Tuesday during Pfizer’s third-quarter earnings call. The company’s shares rose about 3% on Tuesday after raised its profit forecasts for 2022 in its third-quarter earnings report that beat Wall Street expectations. “We believe that not only can we overcome these expected declines, but we can also potentially generate strong growth through the end of the decade,” he said.

In a July report, Moody’s highlighted five Pfizer drugs that could come under pressure from generics over the next decade. They include Eliquis for blood clots, Vyndaqel for cardiomyopathy, Xeljanz for rheumatoid arthritis, Ibrance for breast cancer and Xtandi for prostate cancer.

Together, the five drugs accounted for about 40% of Pfizer’s revenue in the third quarter this year, excluding the Covid vaccine and the antiviral Paxlovid.

It is also unclear how strong the demand for the covid vaccine and Paxlovid will be once the world hopefully emerges from the pandemic. In the third quarter of this year, the vaccine and antiviral treatment accounted for 52% of Pfizer’s total revenue.

Bourla told analysts that Pfizer plans to increase the company’s revenue by $25 billion by 2030 through recent acquisitions and the development of its own drug and vaccine production. He highlighted three areas of focus – respiratory syncytial virus, migraines and ulcerative colitis.

Pfizer’s RSV vaccine candidates for older adults and infants could generate billions in revenue, Bourla said. His vaccine for people 60 and older was 85 percent effective in preventing severe lower respiratory tract infections. Its infant vaccine, given to mothers late in pregnancy, was 81 percent effective in preventing severe illness in the first 90 days of a baby’s life.

Bourla said a vaccine to protect newborns could be on the market by late 2023 or early 2024. It would be the only RSV vaccine in the U.S. that protects babies by giving the shot to the mother, he said. According to Bourla, an RSV vaccine for older adults could also be on the market in the same time frame.

“RSV is an area of ​​great unmet need, particularly in older adults and infants,” he said. “We believe we have the potential to be a leader in the space and to make a real impact on public health.”

Pfizer also plans to build the world’s best migraine drug portfolio with its recent acquisition of Biohaven Pharmaceuticals, Bourla said. Its portfolio of migraine drugs could reach a peak revenue of more than $6 billion, he said. In the US alone, more than 40 million people suffer from migraines.

Pfizer’s acquisition of Arena Pharmaceuticals and its ulcerative colitis drug candidate could also generate billions in revenue, Bourla said. Ulcerative colitis is a debilitating inflammatory bowel disease that affects one million people in the United States

Demand for the treatment is high, and Pfizer expects the market to grow by 50% over the next five years, Bourla said. Etrasimod could enter the U.S. market in the second half of 2023, pending regulatory approval, Bourla said.

Pfizer bought four companies this year alone for a total of more than $24 billion. The drugs these acquisitions bring with them should move Pfizer about one-third of the way toward its 2030 revenue goal, Bourla said.

In addition to Arena and Biohaven, acquisitions include Global Blood Therapeutics and ReViral. Global Blood Therapeutics makes Oxbryta, a therapy for sickle cell anemia. ReViral is developing antiviral drugs for RSV.

Pfizer also has 15 in-house developed drugs and vaccines expected to launch in the next 18 months. Bourla says they can generate $20 billion in sales by 2030.

And Pfizer expects its Covid vaccine and antiviral treatment to continue generating billions of dollars in revenue in the coming years, said David Denton, Pfizer’s chief financial officer.

“It’s going to be a little bit like a long-lasting flu, but actually more deadly than the flu,” Denton said on the earnings call. “That’s why I think the products from both a vaccine and therapy perspective that Pfizer has developed can be very important for many years to come.”