JUSTIN WEBB: Of course Donald Trump is going to try to handle this harshly

Here is a simple fact about Donald Trump. There is never a knock-out punch. Not even now that he was found to have sexually abused E Jean Carroll and has to pay her over $5 million in damages.

A finding that would destroy most political careers may not cause a sudden change in Donald Trump’s political fortunes.

His most ardent supporters will simply believe him when he says it’s all made up. Those in the party who are less heated, but see no hope of anyone else running, will stick with him.

The fact that the rape allegation was not proven could help with this last group. They will think this is a civil case – the burden of proof is lower than in a criminal trial. And that the events were also many years ago.

With The Donald, they collectively held their noses to it: they will almost certainly decide to do it again.

Meanwhile, the man himself defiantly roars: ‘JUDGMENT IS A SHAME’, was his predictable response in the capitals on his channel on the social network.

He is dangerous when he is attacked, when he is cornered. He seems to like it, to thrive. As I write, he has a so-called town hall meeting — a live televised event — with CNN scheduled for this evening, and I expect him to show up and fight.

But here’s his problem. Even if this court didn’t strike a blow, it did some damage. Republicans want to win the next election against a president they see as useless and vacillating. They have returned to Trump in recent weeks as he has appeared increasingly powerful. He was gaining momentum again.

This ruling stops that momentum. He is asking a simple question in the minds of the Republican Party he has so successfully hijacked.

Do we feel happy? Or, to put it another way, do we think the broader electorate — the swing voters in a few key states where the 2024 presidential election will be won — will turn away the steadily growing music that Donald Trump brings with him

They will wonder if it might be time to bail. Not this moment. The primary campaign, which a potential candidate must win, does not begin until next year.

But as this campaign begins, that court finding could come back to haunt Trump. People won’t wonder if he’s a nice guy. They already know the answer. But they will ask him if he is the winner.

And the assumption that Trump is a loser to the broader American electorate is already haunting the Republican Party.

Don’t forget that for all his bombast and astonishing stamina, he was also involved in some pretty significant defeats.

It was Donald Trump who lost the election in 2020. And while some of his die-hard supporters still think the outcome was rigged, many Republicans at the top of the party are well aware of what actually happened.

Trump already lost his party pretty much in the 2018 midterms. And in the last midterms in 2022, the candidates he supported often faltered. He may have cost his party control of the Senate.

There is an anti-Trump story to be told in the party — if any Republican dares to tell it.

This is now a challenge for other candidates. The biggest of them, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, will be under increasing pressure himself: put up or shut up.

DeSantis has boiled over in recent weeks. He has not officially declared that he is in the race against Trump.

When the former president was flown to New York to face fraud charges, DeSantis tried to have it both ways, reveling in Trump’s embarrassment but also suggesting that the trial itself was a fix for the Democratic Party.

This tightrope walk will have to end. It gets DeSantis and the other non-Trump candidates nowhere, making Trump look strong and them look weak.

If he wants to be president, Ron DeSantis will have to prove to Republicans that Donald Trump is history. He’s going to have to come out and say Trump is a loser.

And if he and others do, it’s entirely possible that the floodgates will open and Trump will be swept away politically.

Trump, of course, would not go quietly. That’s why DeSantis and others need an array of big sticks to beat him with. They will have to continue this and it will take some courage.

But now they have enough sticks in their hands. And a very big one has just been delivered by this court decision. Defeating Donald Trump just got easier with the discovery of a sexual assault.

Donald Trump is still standing. And among Republicans desperate for a winner in 2024, there are more questions, more worries — but also growing hope that they can finally say goodbye to the whirlwind years of The Donald dominating their party.

Justin Webb is a former BBC North America editor and presenter of BBC Radio 4’s Today programme